M. Samaei; A. Barzegari; M .R. Ghavimipanah; F. Ja’afari; A. Shami
Abstract
Tehran metropolitan with a high population, existence of active faults, evidence of historical earthquakes and vulnerability of its infrastructures is exposed to a high seismic risk. In the present study, considering geological reports and papers published in the past decade, three scenario earthquakes ...
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Tehran metropolitan with a high population, existence of active faults, evidence of historical earthquakes and vulnerability of its infrastructures is exposed to a high seismic risk. In the present study, considering geological reports and papers published in the past decade, three scenario earthquakes for rupture of Mosha, Niavaran and Parchin faults are presented, and synthetic accelerograms were simulated in the Tehran metropolitan. Stochastic point source method with modification of distance parameter for considering finite fault effects is adopted; and results of studies carried out by International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) in the recent years have been considered to account for site effects. Simulation results show considerable PGA values for Niavaran fault rupture in northern Tehran and for Parchin fault rupture in southern Tehran; also average Modified Mercali Intensity (MMI) for these scenarios are equal to IX for districts 3 and 1 in Tehran, which indicates high damage potential in those areas. Using the simulation results, we have also carried out a preliminary estimation of casualty based on the assumed scenario earthquakes. Casualty (death toll) for rupture scenarios of Mosha, Niavaran and Parchin faults are estimated to be about 5000, 117000 and 85000, respectively.
A Barzegari; M Ghorashi; H Nazari; M.A Shokri; M Porkermani
Abstract
The north-south trending Astara Fault System (AFS) is located in the east of Talesh Mountains (TM) and west of the Caspian Sea. The probable seismic activity of this fault system will largely affect the north of GilanProvince. The AFS is one of the basement faults in Iran, which plays an important role ...
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The north-south trending Astara Fault System (AFS) is located in the east of Talesh Mountains (TM) and west of the Caspian Sea. The probable seismic activity of this fault system will largely affect the north of GilanProvince. The AFS is one of the basement faults in Iran, which plays an important role in TaleshMountains region and subsidence of the South Caspian Basin (SCB). It seems that the AFS is the source of moderate to large magnitude instrumental earthquakes such as the 16-4-1913 (Magnitude=5.1), 11-7-1970 (Magnitude Mb=5.2), 4-11-1978 (Magnitude Ms=6.0) earthquakes.However, little is known about historical earthquakes related to the AFS, but it has been probably the source of the 1709AD and 1713AD historical earthquakes in Rasht. In spite of the earthquakes attributed to the AFS, the lack of critical seismic information such as recurrence interval, slip rate and activity rate of the AFS has made its future seismic activity ambiguous. This research aims at assessing the earthquake recurrence interval related to the AFS. Therefore, two different methods, i.e. Gutenberg–Richter and Kijko–Sellovelmethods,were used to estimate the recurrence interval. The results obtained from the Gutenberg–Richter method represent anearthquake of Ms>8 to occur in the interval of 500, 1000 and 2000 years. The results of the Kijko–Sellovel method, however, representearthquakes with the magnitudes of Ms =7.3, Ms =7.7 andMs =7.9 to occur in the interval of 500, 1000 and 2000 years, respectively.
